S3|SS18: Headlines Potpourri!
Dance Jam:
Let's dance; Put on your red shoes and dance the blues. Let's dance to the song they're playin' on the radio. Let's sway, while color lights up your face. Let's sway, sway through the crowd to an empty space. (Let’s Dance, David Bowie)
Intro
We’re trying something new! Or at least a new version of something old! This is Headlines Potpourri, in which we discuss timely headline news and try to add important context or helpful talking points.
Headline: McCarthy Loses 10th Speaker Vote (10 min)
Despite concessions, Kevin McCarthy has failed to win over Republican hard-liners, leaving his bid for speakership to fail repeatedly over three days of voting. The chamber cannot act on any other business until a speaker is chosen.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/05/us/house-speaker-vote
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3803245-speaker-mccarthy-has-arrived-now-what/
Uhhh… sorry. We mean 14. It took 15 votes for the Republicans to finally elect McCarthy to the Speakership. They broke a 100 year-old record, and it wasn’t one we should be celebrating, honestly.
They are all acting like teenagers
LITERALLY MATT GAETZ VOTED FOR TRUMP
There was almost a fist fight on the floor. Yes. Between representatives.
Alright, if you haven’t been following things, here’s what you need to know: the Republicans had a historically bad midterm, all things considered. They were positioned to take over Congress in both the House and the Senate. Instead, they lost a seat in the Senate and barely eked out a 4 seat majority in the House. 4 is… not a lot. For clarity, when we say “four seat majority,” we mean the Republicans only hold 4 more seats than the midpoint of 218 votes. They can only afford to lose 4 votes to the Democrats on any particular vote. If they lose 5, then anything requiring a majority vote will fail. So, even though they hold 222 seats to the Democrat’s 213, they don’t have a lot of leeway to just ram anything through they want.
Now, having a majority at all is a big deal. As long as they vote as a party, they’re going to be able to do a whole heck of a lot. But as this multi-day long battle for the Speakership showed us, this Congress’ Republicans don’t just vote as a unit. In particular, the House Freedom Caucus (aka the ultra-far right extremists in the Republican party) is making its presence known in the early days of this Congress. It is almost entirely due to them that it took McCarthy 15 votes to actually attain the Speakership. And, in doing so, they gave us a preview of what we can expect out of this Congress.
I’ll sum it up like this - a very weak House Speaker, legislation that is continually bogged down and pushed very far right to appease the final holdouts, and general dysfunction on the House floor. One of the concessions that McCarthy had to make means that any single member can motion to remove McCarthy from the role. If he does something anybody dislikes, well… time to pull him up in front of everyone and make them vote again. There’s every possibility we could see another vote for Speaker in a week. And given that, again, he can’t lose more than 4 votes, we may see another 10, 15, 20 vote session before he’s re-elected.
Chances are we’ll see a battle over the budget later this year. The Senate, where the Democrats only hold a 1 seat majority, will have to win 9 Republican votes for every piece of legislation they send over to the House. (Remember, they need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and since every piece of legislation can effectively be filibustered by a Republican simply saying, “I’m going to filibuster,” that means every piece of legislation effectively needs a near super-majority to pass, instead of a simple majority.) Since the budget will be moderate, and therefore it will be too far left for the people on the far-right, they can simply wield their power to force the government to shut down. This is, of course, assuming that any particular piece of legislation comes down to a party-line vote. If something is moderate enough, the calculus changes a bit. McCarthy and moderates in the House pass legislation that the Freedom Caucus doesn’t like, and then we’re back to McCarthy being called up and trying to force him out.
Basically, he’s between a rock and a hard place. For everything. When it’s time to increase the debt limit sometime in July, expect this group to cause problems, and potentially another hit to the US’s credit rating. Even if he has bi-partisan support on must-pass legislation, relying on Democrats to pass legislation could lead to another round of votes to replace him.
McCarthy himself will cause issues - he’s been outspoken in his railing against sending unlimited aid to Ukraine. Will the United States be able to continue to support the Ukrainians in their battle against Putin’s invasion? Or will McCarthy pinch the supply off?
In short - batten down the hatches, America. We just saw a glimpse of the uncharted seas we’re about to plunge into… And friends, there be troubled waters ahead.
Headline: George Santos arrived in D.C. this week. No one is more riled than N.Y.'s other gay congressman.
Rep. Ritchie Torres, a Democrat, has quickly become an outspoken frontman in the chorus of criticism against incoming GOP Rep-elect. George Santos.
If you haven’t heard about George Santos… we’re not surprised actually. Especially if your news sources tend to lean a bit right. We’re not judging - we promise - it’s just that the core of this story seems to be a particular confluence of awkward and blind spots for those sources.
George Santos is a gay (we think?) Republican from New York who is entering his first term in the House of Representatives. He won voters over with a string of inspirational stories, and contributed to the small Republican majority in the House of Representatives. In fact, as a candidate his views are pretty far right for a representative from NY. So, NY Times reporters started doing a little digging to put together a profile of this up and comer.
And here’s what they figured out: It appears that most of the stories and experiences that endeared Santos to his base during the election were bold-face, bare-ass lies.
He lied about attending a prestigious high school
He lied about his undergraduate degree and early employment
He lied about starting an animal rescue charity
He lied about losing employees in in the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting
He lied about being a “proud American Jew”, and a descendant of Holocaust survivors
Santos is currently under investigation in the US regarding his campaign finance expenditure reports - he reportedly earned $55,000 in 2020 but then earned enough in 2022 to lend his own campaign $700,000. And, he’s being investigated by Brazilian law enforcement because of a 2008 incident involving a stolen checkbook and a rash of fraudulent purchases there.
And still, Santos sat next to Matt Gaetz and was sworn in as a representative of New York on Saturday morning. His response to the controversy? He embellished his resume a bit.
In a brilliant act of pettiness, Rep. Ritchie Torres - also a gay Representative from New York, has introduced the Stop Another Non-Truthful Office Seeker Act - ahem, the SANTOS Act, which would require candidates to disclose their employment, education, and military histories under oath.
Headline: Biden toughens border, offers legal path for 30,000 a month
https://apnews.com/article/politics-mexico-immigration-af0643a4fb8f45388fe247e44c9b2c5e
Alright, so in yet another move that puts a lie to Republican claims that we have just a wildly open border with everyone flooding across all willy-nilly, President Biden announced Thursday that the US would immediately begin to turn away Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans who cross the border from Mexico illegally.
This is after he expanded rules in October to stem the flow of Venezuelans into the US. While making the announcements, he exhorted would-be immigrants to apply legally from where they were. Something that is easier said than done for many of them.
For the next two years, the US will only accept 30,000 people per month from the four nations, provided they come legally, have eligible sponsors, pass vetting and background checks, and have the ability to work. Compare this to the 86,286 migrants stopped from those four countries in November alone, and the enormity of the restriction is obvious.
Still, attempts to enter the United States exceeded 2.38 million in The 2022 fiscal year, the first time it has ever topped 2 million. However, nothing that Biden does by himself will be able to solve the entire problem. For there to be any major, long-lasting improvement on the border, Congress needs to pass legislation to overhaul the system.
Given what we’ve already talked about in this episode… I’m not holding my breath.
Dueling Headlines:
Layoffs are sweeping Corporate America to kick off 2023
Fresh job cuts are in the works already this year at Amazon, Salesforce, Goldman Sachs, and Vimeo
Weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since September
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/economy/weekly-jobless-claims-december-31/index.html
We’ve seen some massive layoffs from heavy hitters in the tech industry over the last several months: 11,000 at Meta; 7,500 at Twitter; 18,000 at Amazon. Companies like Salesforce and Vimeo and Stitch Fix are cutting headcount by at least 10%. Data tracker layoffs.fyi shows that tech companies laid off more than 153,000 workers last year. Employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicates puts that number closer to 97,000. Either way, not an insignificant number.
At the same time, we’re seeing reports that tell us more than 230,000 jobs were added in December and that fewer people are applying for unemployment benefits. That growth is driven by consumer-facing industries like hospitality (restaurants and hotels), and small and medium sized businesses. In fact, businesses with more than 500 employees CUT 151,000 jobs in December.
It might seem like these two headlines, and the reports they’re referencing are telling contradicting stories. But here’s the thing to remember about headlines like these: There’s always more than meets the eye.
*General discussion about the importance of nuance, and the fact that either-or/all-or-nothing thinking is only good for headlines and shit when it comes to mindsets.*
Headline: Bolsonaro supporters storm Brazil’s presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/bolsonaro-supporters-storm-congress-in-brazils-capital
We wanted to throw this in, even though it’s still developing and there’s not a lot to talk about just yet. But on January 8th, Bolsonaro supporters stormed Brazil’s presidential palace, Congress, and Supreme Court buildings.
Back in October 2022, Brazil had a presidential election. In it, leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (aka Lula) defeated right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. After his victory, Lula said, “As of January 1, 2023, I will govern for 215 million Brazilians and not just for those who voted for me. There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, and one great nation.” (Nugent, 2022)
However, Bolsanaro has spend the months after the election contesting the election results, calling for the election to annul votes cast using the nation’s electronic voting machines, and generally casting doubt the results of the election. If he had got his way, the votes that were annulled would be sufficient for Bolsonaro to retain the presidency.
This has brought us to today, when his supporters stormed the government offices of the highest authorities in the land, trashed the offices of the supreme court, broken windows, and essentially rampaged through the symbols of Brazil’s national law making institutions.
Sounds eerily familiar. The good news is that, unlike when Trump’s supporters did mostly the same two years ago on January 6th, 2021, these buildings were largely closed, it being Sunday and all, and so there were relatively few, if any, officials present in the building. Brazil’s military police were seen bringing the situation under control by Sunday evening.
*General Thoughts*
Awkward Segue
Good News:
Headline: FDA approves drug for Alzheimer’s treatment
On January 6th, the FDA approved Leqembi, a new medication approved to treat Alzeheimer’s disease that actually treats the disease itself and not just the symptoms of the disease. For those unfamiliar with Alzheimer’s, it’s a progressive brain disorder that slowly destroys memory and thinking skills, eventually rendering those afflicted with it incapable of carrying out even simple tasks, rendering them effectively helpless. At its worst, those who have it exist in a frightening world that is filled with strangers and strange places. We still don’t know exactly what causes it, but it is characterized by changes in the brain, like the buildup of amyloid beta plaques, that result in the loss of neurons and their connections. As these neurons are destroyed, so too goes the person’s ability to think and remember.
Researchers evaluated Leqembi’s efficacy in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, dose-finding study of 856 patients with Alzheimer’s disease. Treatment was initiated in patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia stage of disease and confirmed presence of amyloid beta pathology. Patients receiving the treatment had significant dose- and time-dependent reduction of amyloid beta plaque, with patients receiving the approved dose of Leqembi, having a statistically significant reduction in brain amyloid plaque from baseline to Week 79 compared to the placebo arm, which had no reduction of amyloid beta plaque. (FDA Grants Accelerated Approval for Alzheimer's Disease Treatment, 2023)
Basically, you take this stuff and it flushes out the amyloid beta plaque, meaning that your Alzheimer’s progresses slower, or maybe even stops. I can’t tell if this reverses the effects of Alzheimers, but my gut tells me that it does not. The destruction of the neurons is what leads to the cognitive impairment, as far as I understand it. This may stop more neurons from being destroyed, but it doesn’t restore neurons, so the symptoms up to the point of treatment may persist. I just can’t tell from these announcements yet. Research is still underway, and there will need to be considerable evaluation of the side effects, but this is, at least to my reading, a huge, huge step in combating this horrible disease.
